To: Hannah-Beth Jackson

CC: UCSB Highway 217 Committee, Santa Barbara County Board of Supervisors, Lisa Plowman

From: Harry N. Nelson, UCSB Department of Physics, (805)-893-8612

Date: 06/16/00

Re: Future Traffic Fatalities on Highway 217

The conversion of Highway 217 from a freeway to an expressway with stoplights will result in an increase in the rate of traffic fatalities. To quantify that increase, I have obtained data from the database of the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA).

Currently, Highway 217 is classified by NHTSA as a `Function Class 12' urban roadway, as is United States 101 (US 101). In 1998, the last year for which data is available, the fatality rate on Class 12 roadways in California was 0.68±0.04 fatalities per million vehicle miles driven, or `fat/mvm'. For comparison, the safest class of urban roadway is `Function Class 11,' which consists of interstate freeways, on which the 1998 California fatality rate was 0.42±0.03 fat/mvm.

If stoplights are placed on Highway 217, the NHTSA classification would change to a `Function Class 13' urban roadway. Generally, Class 13 roadways have a speed limit of 35 miles per hour (mph) or greater, and stoplights. Some other Class 13 roadways in Santa Barbara County are Betteravia Road, Highway 192 (Foothill Road/Sycamore Canyon Road), and Highway 225 (Las Positas/Cliff Drive/Cabrillo Boulevard). In 1998, the fatality rate on Class 13 roadways in California was 1.46±0.05 fat/mvm, which is more than twice as high as the fatality rate on Class 12 roadways is.

To provide some perspective, I consider how many fatalities one can expect in the next 25 years on 217, among vehicle travelers going between US 101 and both UCSB and the Airport. The County and UCSB have made projections for the number of Average Daily Trips (ADT) that will occur on 217. If 217 is not changed, and remains a Class 12 roadway, I estimate that 1.48±0.08 fatalities will occur in the next 25 years. If 217 is changed to a Class 13 roadway, I estimate that 3.20±0.12 fatalities will occur in the same time interval.

The conversion of Highway 217 from a freeway to an expressway with stoplights will result in an increase of 1.72±0.14 fatalities among UCSB and Airport vehicle travelers over the next 25 years.

These fatality estimates assume 2.2 million vehicle miles due to UCSB/Airport traffic on 217 in the next 25 years.

Fatalities will also increase among vehicles not bound for UCSB and the Airport. The existing traffic of this type would cause about * of an additional fatality in the next 25 years. Traffic from the portion of the Goleta Old Town south of Hollister, intended for redevelopment, currently uses mostly Class 14 and Class 15 roadways for travel to and from Highway 217. These types of roadways experience a lower fatality rate than do Class 13 roadways. Should this traffic be routed onto the 217 via new intersections at Ekwill and Fowler, I estimate that * to * of an additional fatality would be caused, in the next 25 years.

As background information, the 1957 State Highway Commission report on the original construction of Highway 217 specifically recommended that the roadway be `A four-lane divided highway, with only a few intersections at grade...,' also referred to in the report as an expressway. This would have been a Class 13 roadway. The date of the report is April 25, 1957. However, the Commission adopted a resolution on October 23, 1957, which recommended the construction of Highway 217 as a freeway, that is, a Class 12 roadway. I have not traced the details of why the Commission changed their judgement from expressway to freeway. However, in 1957 US 101 in Santa Barbara still had at-grade intersections, and was considered a danger to students when they traveled back and forth between UCSB and Santa Barbara. Records of the original debate in the 1950's concerning 217 indicate that the UCSB administration, the County Supervisors, and UCSB booster groups argued for a freeway, distinct from US 101, in order to make trips between Santa Barbara and UCSB safer for students. It is possible that route 217 was, in 1957, changed from an expressway to a freeway in order to keep students safer.

The Environmental Impact Report prepared in 1997 for the Goleta Old Town Revitalization Plan contained a written comment (Letter B54) from Mr. Mike Shinn, in which he raised the issue of reduction of traffic safety, if stoplights were introduced on the 217. There is no County response on this issue of traffic safety in the final EIR.